Former NASA principals should hang together or be hanged separately and perish

 We are nearly a year to 2022 general elections. The most hotly contested seat is always the presidential election irrespective of whether the sitting president will defend his seat or there will be a transition of power in countries that adhere to democracy like Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania.

Already, the political class have started realigning themselves with the coalition that stands a chance of capturing next year’s State House seat. Those jostling for the seat are William Ruto with his bandwagon of Hustler Movement, Raila Odinga of ODM and One Kenya alliance led by Kalonzo Musyoka of (Wiper), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Gideon Moi (KANU) and Moses Wetangula (Ford Kenya).

However, the Weta’s party is facing a dispute in political party tribunal over party leadership. Wafula Wamunyinyi self-imposed and elevated himself to be the party leader. Wrangles are yet over.

The trio (Kalonzo, Mudavadi, Wetangula) were part of the NASA team which challenged Jubilee Party election and re-election in 2013 and 2017 unsuccessfully. Mudavadi joined them in 2017 and was the brainchild of NASA. They have threatened to quit NASA over sharing of political parties’ fund, dysfunctionality and Raila's handshake with President Uhuru which weakened Opposition's watchdog roles in the Senate and National Assembly. The coalition exists only on paper.

Presidential election is different from the other elective seats where candidates vying can be declared winner despite the voter difference. In Kiambaa Constituency by-election for example, UDA candidate won with a difference of five hundred votes. The procedure at presidential election is set out under article 138. For one to be declared duly elected, he/she must garner half of the votes cast for presidential election, receive twenty five percent of the votes cast in twenty-four counties(half).

Presidential elections

The law grants Chairperson of IEBC seven days to announce presidential election results. If no candidate meets this constitutional requirement, a fresh election should be held within thirty days. This election shall involve two leading presidential candidates. In this fresh election, the candidate who shall receive the highest number of votes shall be declared winner.

Since enactment of the Constitution of Kenya 2010, we have never witnessed a rerun. In 2022, we might go for a rerun due to presence of a third force (OKA). Ruto and Raila have been touted as the leading contenders.

Elections in Kenya are determined by tribal matrix and calculations. William Ruto is a force to reckon with. He is a tactician and a strategist. He has never lost any election except 2010 when he campaigned against the Constitution.

If One Kenya Alliance Principals and Raila won't unite, then the man from Sugoi will have an easy task. Raila can't play a second fiddle. Kalonzo has also said he will be the most stupid person to deputize Raila twice without reciprocate. This leaves the enigma with the option of playing the role of Kingmaker like he did in 2002 or go it alone with ODM, use influence of second term Governors from Ukambani and Western to neutralize OKA Principles. Former NASA principals should hang together or be hanged separately and perish.

Any attempt to postpone election in Kenya shall be rejected by allies of William Ruto. The constitution is supreme, no other law can supersede provisions of the constitution. Article 101 establishes general election be conducted on a second Tuesday of August every fifth year. Political campaigns cannot be conducted without rallies and gatherings to woo voters. They have been barred as a way of combating the virus. I also foresee a scenario of President suspending political rallies during campaign period to stop spike and wave of Covid-19.

Story by Kitonga Musyoka, a Legal and Political Analyst.