SEASON OF POLITICAL COALITIONS, DEFECTIONS AND BETRAYAL

The clock is ticking towards 2022 general elections. Constitution stipulates that elections shall be held on the second Tuesday of August after every five years. Next election will be held on 9th August 2022 on a Tuesday. 

President Kenyatta is working round the clock to cement his legacy before his second and final term ends in the next one year and four months. We are now heading to the season where politicians or tribal kingpins form coalitions and alliances.

We are also likely to witness formation of political parties and mass exodus of politicians to other parties. Deputy President William Ruto and his allies have been associated with United Democratic Alliance which is their Plan B should Jubilee eject their boss out of the party. Dr Ruto is the only person from his Tangatanga brigade left standing in the ruling Jubilee Party.

All his allies have been removed from party positions, senate and national assembly leadership and committees.

Last month, the party won its first seat in London Ward Nakuru but lost in Matungu, Kabuchai and Machakos by elections.

Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavidi, Moses Wetangula and Gideon Moi have formed One Kenya Alliance. The three except Mr Moi were part of the NASA team in 2017. Raila was their flagbearer.

In their Memoranda of Understanding, they agreed ODM would not field a Presidential candidate in 2022.Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua during the funeral of Senior Counsel Nzamba Kitonga requested Raila  to support Kalonzo and honour their MOU. But in his response, Raila said this would have happened if he had won the presidential election.

The trio have also asked Raila to support one of them. Wetangula and Kalonzo supported Raila  in 2013 and 2017 while Mudavadi was the brainchild of the National Super Alliance in 2017.Raila has dismissed their calls to endorse any of them. The three didn't attend Raila's swearing in at Uhuru Park where the latter was sworn in as the “People's President”.

Kalonzo recently said as a senior counsel and a believer of the rule of law and Constitution, he would not have attended or participated in what he termed as a mock swearing in. But it seems the three had chickened out the event. One Kenya Alliance faces a dilemma of choosing flag bearer given Kalonzo has been Raila's running mate twice. He might not accept to deputize anyone this time.

There are those who view this coalition to have blessings from the President, but the President has kept all of us guessing.

Tough choices

President Kenyatta is in a dilemma and caught between a rock and a hard place. He has tough choices to make. He promised Ruto that he would serve 10 years and support him after serving his two terms. But in his second term, it seems the president has isolated his deputy. In one of his countrywide tours, Mr Kenyatta confessed that his choice of successor would surprise many, meaning Ruto was no longer in his succession plans nor is he his heir apparent as they had agreed in 2013.

Allies of Raila are also expecting the president to endorse their party leader, the man he agreed to work with to cool down political temperatures and stabilize the country which was facing political instability Raila's elder brother has suggested 2022 will be a sure bet because they now have what they have been lacking(System).

Also caught in dilemma are the second term governors. They have tough choices to make in order to remain relevant in the political scene if they don't want to retire or take a break. Some of them like Oparanya, Joho, Mutua and Kibwana have declared their interest to vie for President. The three second term governors from Coast (Mvurya,Kingi,Joho) have plans of forming a coastal party. Raila, while in his tour of coast said this idea “would undermine national unity”.

President Kenyatta last month met the trio at State House. Others want to vie for MP seat so that they may be appointed as Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Ministers and cabinet ministers should BBI sail through and become a law.

If Uhuru will betray both Raila and Ruto, the two can unite and form a coalition. It is said that nothing unites people more than a common challenge. But this coalition would also be in a dilemma in choosing presidential flag bearer. Allies of Deputy President Ruto led by Kirinyaga woman representative Purity Ngirici have said they will ditch Tanga Tanga should Raila join their camp.

Ruto will have served two terms as a deputy president by next year. Under article 148, the constitution stipulates that a person shall not serve for more than two terms as a Deputy President. In the next year’s general elections, Ruto cannot be anyone's running mate. That's a fact.

The only choice he has should he accept to back Raila, is to go back to Eldoret North and vie for Member of Parliament so that he could become Prime Minster if Constitution of Kenya Amendment Bill 2020 becomes law.

The man from Sugoi has opposed calls of amending the constitution through BBI. He did the same in 2010 but it was a blessing in disguise and a silver lining to him. But should he accept to be Prime Minister, will this not be a downgrade to him? In one of the media interviews last month, he said he is ready to work with Raila. The man he has ridiculed and referred as Mganga, Mchawi and Jamaa wa Vitendawili. But it is said the only permanent thing in politics is betrayal and interests and in Kenyan politics, your current nemesis could be your future ally.

Raila has unsuccessfully run for president for four times. Can he accept to deputize Ruto? Obviously, no. In 2017, he said it was his last bullet but you cannot trust a politician. Raila and Ruto are probably next year's presidential front runners. The former hasn't declared he will run for the highest office in the land. He has said his focus is to have BBI passed then he will announce his next move which your guess is as good as mine. The two generals have troops from across the country. 

They have been crisscrossing the country to sell their agendas of Hustler and Reggae. Raila is a force to reckon with. He is the only politician outside government who can declare a public holiday like he did in August 2017.He doesn't need facilitation to hold a rally at Uhuru Park. He has foot soldiers who are ever ready to die for him. You remember George Bodo, the man who said if Raila contracts Corona, this country should be disbanded and everyone goes home.

Raila with his allies from Western Kenya can defeat Mudavadi and Wetangula in their bastion. One Kenya Alliance is only famous in their political strongholds of Western, Ukambani and Baringo. Unlike 2017 where Uhuru was seeking re-election, one thing is certain in next year’s general election, there will be a transition of power. I don't know who Kenyans will elect. Should Raila and Ruto form a coalition, they will carry the day by 11 am. Should Raila, Ruto and a flag bearer from one Kenya Alliance go separately, we might have a re-run. But it is too early to predict. Let’s wait and see what will transpire in the next one year.

KITONGA MUSYOKA is a Political Analyst & Commentator